The Aviation industry was hit hard by the pandemic, but hope is over the horizon. Unarguably, 2021/22 years would be the most dramatic in the history of aviation. Broadly accepted as the most reliable mean for transportation with a ground-breaking track record for safety by marking only 0.07 deaths per one billion passenger miles, aviation has been severely affected by the pandemic.
VHR's Aviation recruitment specialists investigate the six trends that will help aviation and aerospace to recover from COVID-19 with the help from technology and AI.
Technology has been the key driving force for making aviation reliable and seamless over the years. With further development of technology, the aviation industry is expected to achieve greater heights in 2021/22.
Initial Public Offerings (IPO) that took place in past months accumulated a staggering amount of money into wealthy business owners. With this extra cash they received, the lucrative tier tends to buy more private property such as private jets, yachts, and mansions. This added more private jets into the industry while creating an unforeseen demand for second-hand jets. With the decline of commercial aircraft operations amidst the pandemic, companies brought their business jets to facilitate its upper echelon when meeting potential clients and undertaking special meetings all around the globe. Additionally, Covid related health measures urged many travellers to switch to private flying from commercial aviation.
In 2022, there will be a 10% increment for private jet demand over 2021 demand. Annually the demand will keep ramping up at a rate of 3% till 2031.
Commercial space travel has gained much attention over time and companies like SpaceX and Virgin Galactic have announced the commencement of space tourism. By the year 2030, space tourism will accumulate a market share of at least €2.7 billion where most of the Research and Development (R&D) feats will take place in the coming years. The introduction of reusable boosters will be the protagonist for making commercial space travel a lot cheaper than early days, and due to constant R&D, companies will be able to offer a trip to the edge of space and back for a price of a flight ticket.
Visiting Friends and Family (VFR) passengers played a significant role in recent years while they are going to revitalise the industry this time after being hardly hit by the pandemic. Low-cost carriers are going to benefit from the pent-up demand as VFR passengers prefer low-cost carriers over legacy carriers: the VFR sector spends less compared to the corporate and leisure travellers.
This tentative rebound will give airlines a breath of fresh air. According to Global Data, a data analytics company, VFR demand will keep ramping up with a 17% compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025.
The air cargo sector shared the brunt with other aviation sectors amidst the pandemic, but with less severity. As stated by the Airports Council International, there was only an 8.9% reduction of cargo volume in 2020 compared to the pre-COVID era. The air cargo industry was flourishing
over the past years due to the emergence of E-commerce all over the globe and it sustained the pandemic without losing the phase. The above-mentioned factors combined with the extensive demand for vaccine transportation made the air cargo sector a lifeline for many countries. It is believed that the demand in 2021/22 will surpass the 2019 levels, even reaching the highest demand in the history of aviation: 69.3 million metric tons.
Aviation, among the hardest hit industries by the pandemic, experienced a 64.6% reduction in passenger traffic in the year 2020. Airlines had to ground most of their aeroplanes, leaving pilots and other professionals unattended. Many were laid off from their jobs, and some were directed to voluntary retirement schemes while many senior pilots took their early retirements. With the expected demand for air travel ramping up from 2022, aircraft movements will escalate significantly, creating a shortage of pilots, cabin crew, and other ground staff.
As per the Oliver Wyman analysis, in 2022, pilot demand will surpass the active number of pilots and continue to grow over the decade, creating a shortage of 60,000 pilots over the globe.
For the period of 2021 January to 2023 January, the number of active pilots will increase by nearly 43,000, making these two years the most dynamic era for the aviation and aerospace industry. Normally, it takes somewhere around 24 months to train a pilot and student pilots
who have started their flight training in 2021 will be absorbed into the industry in 2023: allowing a vacuum in the time between.
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